America's dangerous friends
America's enemies are becoming more dangerous, but
even its friends could drag it into expanded conflicts
this year.
Volodymyr Zelensky. President Joe Biden has been
Ukraine's staunchest supporter since Russia's invasion
in February 2022. Having pledged to stay by Kyiv's side
"as long as it takes," he has shepherded $113 billion in
military and other aid that has proven vital to Ukrainians'
ability to defend themselves. Biden has done this even
though he neither likes nor trusts President Zelensky.
However, political support for Ukraine within the
US has wavered as the war has dragged on, seriously
undermining Biden's ability to keep the aid coming past
this year. And if Donald Trump-who considers Zelensky
a personal adversary-wins in November, Ukrainians
can wave goodbye to their biggest backer (please see
Top Risk #1). Cracks have also emerged within Ukraine,
where infighting between Zelensky and Chief of the
Armed Forces Valery Zaluzhny (over military strategy)
as well as Kyiv Mayor Vitali Klitschko (over Zelensky's
allegedly authoritarian leadership) has spilled into the
open, threatening Ukrainian political unity and fueling
more skepticism among Kyiv's friends.
Under pressure domestically and frustrated with both
diminishing US support and increasing difficulties on
the battlefield, a desperate Zelensky will be willing to
take bigger risks to turn the war around and maintain
his political standing before Trump potentially takes
office (please see Top Risk #3). This includes more
aggressive attacks against targets in Russia, Crimea,
and the Black Sea, threatening a response from Russia
and potentially forcing the United States to become
more directly involved in the war.
Benjamin Netanyahu. Israel is America's closest ally in
the Middle East, the only democracy in the region, and
the largest cumulative recipient of US foreign aid. It is no
surprise that Biden-a self-described Zionist and longtime
Israel supporter-strongly backed Israel's initial response
to Hamas's 7 October attacks, despite his complicated
relationship with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
Since then, however, a public rift has opened between the
two over the conduct and endgame of the war in Gaza. They
are also at odds about the role the Palestinian Authority
should play in Gaza's postwar governance as well as the
viability of a two-state solution. Fundamentally, Biden
wants to see the war end, while Netanyahu has political
and personal reasons to keep it going or even escalate it.
eurasia group TOP RISKS 2024
Determined to stay in power and out of jail and
emboldened by the possibility that his friend Trump
returns to power in January 2025, Netanyahu will push
back against pressure from Biden to end the war. He
will ignore calls for restraint in Gaza while eyeing more
conflict with Hezbollah in the north (please see Top
Risk #2). He will also continue to inflame tensions in the
West Bank and thwart any efforts to create a Palestinian
state in the future. As a result, the United States will be
inextricably tied to an intensifying conflict over which
it has limited influence-one that will further strain US
relations with the Arab world, the Global South, and
even some allies, as well as create political challenges for
Biden at home. Should Netanyahu decide to preemptively
strike Hezbollah or even Iran itself, the US would find
itself drawn into a much broader Middle East war.
William Lai. Washington's long-standing "one China"
policy and its security cooperation with Taiwan have
been critical to deterring both a Chinese invasion and
a declaration of independence from Taipei. Although
Biden has repeatedly said the US would defend Taiwan
against a Chinese attack, "strategic ambiguity" remains
the official stance, and the president has no desire to
risk a crisis with Beijing over the island. But the uneasy
status quo in the Taiwan Strait will soon be tested if
Taiwan elects Vice President William Lai, the ruling
party candidate whom China views as the most pro
independence Taiwanese leader in a generation, as
president (and his running mate Hsiao Bi-khim, Taiwan's
former representative to the US, as vice president).
While Biden will oppose any de jure independence
moves from Lai, the domestic politics of the Taiwan
issue will prevent the US president from objecting to the
smaller, symbolic steps toward de facto autonomy Lai is
likely to take. Yet even these will be enough to provoke a
beyond-precedent military response from Beijing, such
as violating Taiwan's airspace or waters or conducting
ship inspections. Biden will be forced to respond to
Chinese aggression with a show of resolve in support for
Taipei that could jeopardize the US-China thaw and risk
a dangerous cycle of escalation.
Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan will all continue to be major
US allies. But their leaders' pursuit of their national-and,
occasionally, personal-interests will further entangle
Washington in growing conflicts.
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