本則回應

• Pei-Chi Lo標記此篇為：💬 含有個人意見

  理由

  這篇文章主要引述自Dr. Eric Feigl-Ding在twitter對疫情的個人評論，該人確實存在也的確來自哈佛。
  
  2020年1月25日Dr. Eric Feigl-Ding在twitter的原始貼文：
  https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/
  
  
  
  閱讀更多

  不同意見

  文中提到新型冠狀病毒的R0(可理解為「平均一個人可以傳染給多少人」)是3.8，主要出自Lancaster 2020年1月24日發布的研究：
  https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.01.23.20018549v1
  
  但不同單位針對R0有不同數值的發表(且隨疫情變化R0本來就會變動)，WHO 2020年1月23日聲明中使用的R0數值是1.4~2.5人：
  https://www.who.int/news-room/detail/23-⋯utbreak-of-novel-coronavirus-(2019-ncov)
  
  另一份2020年1月25日發布的報告則評估R0為2.6(範圍：1.5-3.5)：
  https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-in⋯isease-analysis/news--wuhan-coronavirus/
  
  針對低估確診人數，端傳媒2020年1月25日有相關報導，提及確診名單外的死亡患者情形：
  https://theinitium.com/article/20200126-⋯land-wuhan-pneumonia-forgotten-patients/

  Dr. Eric Feigl-Ding on Twitter: "HOLY MOTHER OF GOD - the new coronavirus is a 3.8!!! How bad is that reproductive R0 value? It is thermonuclear pandemic level bad - never seen an actual virality coefficient outside of Twitter in my entire career. I’m not exaggerating... #WuhanCoronovirus #CoronavirusOutbreak https://t.co/6mmxIHL9Ue"

  https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1220919589623803905

  HOLY MOTHER OF GOD - the new coronavirus is a 3.8!!! How bad is that reproductive R0 value? It is thermonuclear pandemic level bad - never seen an actual virality coefficient outside of Twitter in my

  Eric Feigl-Ding, PhD

  https://scholar.harvard.edu/ericding/home

  Dr. Eric Feigl-Ding (Eric Ding) is a health economist, epidemiologist, and nutrition scientist at the Harvard Chan School of Public Health, and an expert advisor to the World Health Organization.

  Novel coronavirus 2019-nCoV: early estimation of epidemiological parameters and epidemic predictions

  https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.01.23.20018549v1

  AbstractIn December 2019, a novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) is thought to have emerged into the human population in Wuhan, China. The number of identified cases in Wuhan has increased rapidly since, and

  Statement on the meeting of the International Health Regulations (2005) Emergency Committee regarding the outbreak of novel coronavirus 2019 (n-CoV) on 23 January 2020

  https://www.who.int/news-room/detail/23-01-2020-statement-on-the-meeting-of-the-international-health-regulations-(2005)-emergency-committee-regarding-the-outbreak-of-novel-coronavirus-(2019-ncov)

  Home/ Newsroom/ Detail/ Statement on the meeting of the International Health Regulations (2005) Emergency Committee regarding the outbreak of novel coro

  https://www.imperial.ac.uk/mrc-global-infectious-disease-analysis/news--wuhan-coronavirus/

  Cannot get data from URL

  確診名單外的死亡患者｜端傳媒 Initium Media

  https://theinitium.com/article/20200126-mainland-wuhan-pneumonia-forgotten-patients/

  「病人越來越多。」郭瑞華每日經過急診部門，看見「烏壓壓」的人群拿著小板凳排隊，「當時就覺得情況失控了。患者在急診就是等死。」特約記者 王浠 端傳媒記者 門悅悅 實習記者 張美悅、李瑞洋 發自武漢、香港2020-01-262020年1月25日，一名病人到達武漢市紅十字會醫院，由穿上防護衣的醫務人員帶進醫院。攝：Hector Retamal/AFP via Getty Images四十歲的趙陽（化名）